AceShowbiz - It might be premature to predict the Emmy winners when May has just begun and nominations are still weeks away, but the excitement of early speculation is hard to resist. Despite some shows yet to premiere and official nominee lists still pending, we can glean key insights from returning champions and rising contenders.

Last year’s standout shows like The Pitt, Hacks, and Beef are back in the running, promising strong competition. Many performers who earned nominations before remain eligible, and several cast members of Euphoria have crossed over into major movie stardom, adding more buzz to their Emmy prospects. With these factors, it’s the perfect moment to analyze what might unfold in the coming months.

Before delving into category-by-category predictions, it’s important to note that the number of nominees in acting categories depends on how many performers are submitted. The Academy’s rules specify:

• 20-80 submissions: five nominees
• 81-160 submissions: six nominees
• 161-240 submissions: seven nominees
• More than 240 submissions: eight nominees

Last year, this meant five nominees in Lead Actor/Actress Drama, seven in Supporting Actor/Actress Drama, five in Lead Actor/Actress Comedy, seven in Supporting Actor/Actress Comedy, five in Lead Actor/Actress Limited Series or Movie, and six in Supporting Actor/Actress Limited Series or Movie. For this exercise, we assume similar numbers will hold.

Outstanding Drama Series

Among last year’s nominees, four series are back: The Pitt, Slow Horses, The Diplomat, and Paradise. This is the highest number of returning nominees in six years and the first time in four years that multiple nominees from last year are again eligible. Adding to the field, several acclaimed past nominees like Euphoria, Stranger Things, The Boys, The Morning Show, The Gilded Age, and Fallout have returned after a hiatus. Newcomers such as Apple’s Pluribus, AMC’s The Audacity, HBO’s Task, and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms face a daunting lineup of Emmy-approved dramas to challenge.

As the reigning champion, The Pitt leads the pack. Even without the large-scale crisis that defined its first season, the show delivered gripping episodic tension and developed Dr. Robby’s character from a steady leader to a more complex figure. However, unlike sophomore champions such as Succession or Breaking Bad, The Pitt may lack a significant leap forward, leaving the door open for challengers.

The Diplomat, Slow Horses, and Paradise all offer engaging geopolitical intrigue but share overlapping themes that might prevent any one from surging ahead as the winner. Meanwhile, Pluribus—from the creator of Breaking Bad—is a promising new entry, potentially delivering the kind of conceptually bold yet character-driven drama Emmy voters seek, especially with Rhea Seehorn’s performance as Carol anchoring the series.

A wild-card contender is Euphoria, which currently commands massive public attention. Since its last Emmy appearance, Zendaya has solidified her star status, and co-stars Sydney Sweeney and Jacob Elordi have risen to movie stardom. The question remains whether the show’s edgier, often controversial tone fits the traditional Emmy mold or if its cultural impact will push it into contention.

The battle for the last few drama slots promises intrigue. The Testaments hopes to leverage recent Oscars momentum and the goodwill of voters who supported The Handmaid's Tale during politically charged times. Task benefits from its pedigree and Mark Ruffalo’s Emmy-winning presence but faces stiff competition from HBO priorities like The Pitt, Euphoria, and possibly The Gilded Age. Meanwhile, The Morning Show surprised with 16 nominations last year; its latest season’s reception could determine if it remains a contender or falls off the map.

Predicted nominees for Outstanding Drama Series: The Diplomat, Euphoria, The Morning Show, Paradise, The Pitt, Pluribus, Slow Horses, The Testaments.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The character evolution of Dr. Robby in The Pitt makes the protagonist less likable but strengthens Noah Wyle’s case for a second straight Emmy win. Returning contenders Gary Oldman for Slow Horses and Sterling K. Brown for Paradise remain strong bets, leaving two to three slots open to competitive candidates.

The Diplomat has steadily gained Emmy traction amid a relatively light year for heavy-hitters, and Rufus Sewell—playing the newly appointed vice president—might benefit the most from this momentum as his role expands in the show’s third season.

Walton Goggins and Idris Elba, nominated two years ago for Fallout and Hijack, respectively, should not be overlooked despite mixed buzz. While Fallout lost some momentum in its sophomore year, Hijack secured Elba a nomination with limited hype, illustrating that buzz can be unpredictable.

New series entrants include Mark Ruffalo (Task), Billy Magnussen (The Audacity), and Peter Claffey (A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms). Their relative fame could form a hierarchy akin to the "Three Little Pigs," with Ruffalo’s “brick” status giving him an edge, followed by Magnussen’s “wood,” and Claffey’s “straw.”

Billy Bob Thornton’s portrayal in Landman continues to test whether Taylor Sheridan’s projects can finally capture Emmy voters’ attention after years of indifference. Jon Hamm’s role in Your Friends & Neighbors relies on whether enough voters are aware of the show to support him.

Predicted nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Sterling K. Brown, Gary Oldman, Mark Ruffalo, Rufus Sewell, Noah Wyle.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Zendaya stands out as a two-time winner in this category who has never lost. Since her last win, she has grown into an even bigger star, and Euphoria has only increased in prominence. Rhea Seehorn’s work in Pluribus is widely regarded as nomination-worthy, though some expect her to challenge for the win, while Keri Russell (The Diplomat) remains a near-certain nominee, thanks to her strong Emmy voter support.

Kathy Bates is likely to return as a nominee but did not win last year despite strong momentum, suggesting Emmy voters may be less enthusiastic about Matlock than CBS audiences. Jennifer Aniston’s chances with The Morning Show might be underestimated due to the show's fourth season airing last fall without generating the usual buzz. However, underestimating her or the series could be unwise.

Other contenders for the final nomination spot include Sydney Chandler from Alien: Earth, who earned a Gotham nomination; Carrie Coon from The Gilded Age, a returning nominee; and Sarah Goldberg from The Audacity, who has potential buzz.

As the Emmy race heats up, these early predictions offer a glimpse into the battles shaping up across drama categories. While surprises are inevitable, the blend of returning favorites and fresh faces sets the stage for an exciting awards season.