AceShowbiz - The awards season is nearing its penultimate moment before the final Oscar ballots are cast at the Dolby Theatre.

The last major stop before Oscar voting closes often defines momentum, solidifies narratives, and reveals the collective preferences of actors — the Academy’s largest voting group. The SAG Awards, now known as the Actor Awards and voted on by over 160,000 SAG-AFTRA members, consistently serve as a dependable indicator in performance categories due to significant overlap with the Academy’s acting branch. This year’s contenders present a compelling mix of blockbuster hits, prestige dramas, and a few unexpected contenders.

In the coveted Best Cast Ensemble category, the competition appears to revolve around the cultural phenomenon of Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama Sinners against Paul Thomas Anderson’s expansive political saga One Battle After Another.

Sinners, led by Michael B. Jordan and a dynamic supporting cast, exudes widespread industry enthusiasm. Predicting the winner involves many factors. Timothée Chalamet returns as a contender for Marty Supreme, following his SAG win last year for A Complete Unknown. Historically, no actor has ever won back-to-back SAG film awards in the same category — a feat only Renee Zellweger achieved by winning lead and supporting roles in consecutive years (2002 and 2003). While this might suggest Chalamet’s chances are slim, it’s far from a definitive block.

His main competitors include Michael B. Jordan for his dual roles in Sinners, Leonardo DiCaprio as the revolutionary father in One Battle After Another, and Ethan Hawke portraying musician Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon.

Throughout the season, momentum shifted considerably, with many experts identifying Hawke as a potential surprise winner late in the race. However, the recent surge in support for Sinners — especially after it shattered the all-time Oscar nomination record — has positioned Jordan as the predicted eleventh-hour victor. SAG voters often favor populist choices, reinforcing this outlook.

This trend is expected to influence related categories, such as Best Supporting Actress, where Wunmi Mosaku from Sinners is rising after her BAFTA win. Close contenders include Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan for Weapons and Golden Globe recipient Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another.

In the Lead Actress category, the quieter, more intimate film Hamnet showcases the kind of nuanced performances that SAG voters appreciate. Star Jessie Buckley is expected to continue her dominant run this awards season. Runner-up predictions lean towards Rose Byrne, whose television connections may give her a slight edge, while Kate Hudson benefits from deep industry ties that bolster her chances.

The Supporting Actor race promises nail-biting tension. Unlike the Supporting Actress category, which has produced a different winner at every major ceremony so far, the male supporting category remains wide open. Sean Penn of One Battle After Another claimed a surprise BAFTA win but was notably absent from the ceremony. His co-star Benicio Del Toro has earned the most critics’ awards this season but has yet to accept a major prize publicly.

Other contenders include Critics Choice winner Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård from Sentimental Value, and Paul Mescal of Hamnet, who was not nominated for a SAG Award. A win by Mescal would cause unprecedented disruption on Oscar night.

Additionally, stunt performers are gaining notable attention, with the high-octane racing drama F1 potentially overshadowing the final moments of Tom Cruise’s iconic Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning.

On the television front, surprises appear less likely but remain possible. Following Emmy wins, HBO Max’s drama The Pitt and Apple TV’s The Studio are predicted to secure wins for Outstanding Ensemble and lead actor categories, spotlighting Noah Wyle and Seth Rogen respectively.

For female television actors, Rhea Seehorn is favored to continue her Emmy momentum with the new drama Pluribus. In the comedy lead category, Jean Smart remains a perennial frontrunner for Hacks. However, the recent passing of veteran actress Catherine O’Hara from The Studio may garner sympathy votes, potentially making her the first posthumous female winner in a TV acting category and the third overall, after Heath Ledger (2008) and Chadwick Boseman (2020).

Notably, several cast members of the Apple TV series, including Ricky Martin and Carol Burnett, have publicly supported Kristen Wiig under the hashtag #TisTime in hopes of securing her first SAG win.

In limited series categories, where ensemble awards are still absent, the competition is tight. Emmy-winning co-stars Stephen Graham and Owen Cooper face off in Adolescence, with predictions favoring the seasoned Graham.

Also from Adolescence, Emmy winner Erin Doherty contends with co-star Christine Tremarco and high-profile nominees like Sarah Snook (All Her Fault), Claire Danes (The Beast in Me), and Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex). Experts expect Snook to prevail.

Below is a summary of key film category predictions:

Cast Ensemble in a Motion Picture

• Frankenstein (Netflix): David Bradley, Christian Convery, Charles Dance, Jacob Elordi, Mia Goth, Oscar Isaac, Felix Kammerer, Lars Mikkelsen, Christoph Waltz
• Hamnet (Focus Features): Joe Alwyn, Jessie Buckley, Noah Jupe, Paul Mescal, Emily Watson
• Marty Supreme (A24): Odessa A’zion, Sandra Bernhard, Timothée Chalamet, Emory Cohen, Fran Drescher, Abel Ferrara, Penn Jillette, Koto Kawaguchi, Luke Manley, Tyler Okonma, Kevin O’Leary, Gwyneth Paltrow, Géza Röhrig, Larry Sloman
• One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.): Benicio Del Toro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Regina Hall, Chase Infiniti, Sean Penn, Teyana Taylor
• Sinners (Warner Bros.): Miles Caton, Buddy Guy, Michael B. Jordan, Jayme Lawson, Delroy Lindo, Omar Miller, Wunmi Mosaku, Jack O’Connell, Hailee Steinfeld

Will Win: Sinners

Could Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: Hamnet

Should Have Been Nominated: Nouvelle Vague

Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (A24)
• Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (Warner Bros.)
• Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (Focus Features)

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan

Could Win: Ethan Hawke

Should Win: Michael B. Jordan

Should Have Been Nominated: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (Focus Features)
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (A24)
• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (Focus Features)
• Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
• Emma Stone, Bugonia (Focus Features)

Will Win: Jessie Buckley

Could Win: Rose Byrne

Should Win: Jessie Buckley

Should Have Been Nominated: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Miles Caton, Sinners (Warner Bros.)
• Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (Netflix)
• Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
• Paul Mescal, Hamnet (Focus Features)

The final awards circuit stop is poised to reshape the narrative and momentum heading into Oscar night. Whether Michael B. Jordan continues his strong run or an unexpected upset emerges, the stakes have never been higher in this fiercely competitive race.