Early figures from Britain's Official Charts Company (OCC) show that the dad blogger and YouTuber's latest novelty hit, "I Love Sausage Rolls", a parody of Joan Jett's "I Love Rock 'n' Roll", is narrowly ahead of Stormzy and Ed's collaboration with the Nigerian star as of Sunday, December 15.
LadBaby, real name Mark Hoyle, topped last year's rundown with another snack-based hit, "We Built This City on Sausage Rolls", which like this year's effort raised funds for the Trussell Trust food bank charity.
Compilers believe the race could narrow before Friday's official announcement, given Stormzy and Ed's stronger streaming figures, but for now, believe LadBaby is the favourite to top this year's U.K. yuletide chart.
OCC boss Martin Talbot says: "As we enter the biggest week of the year, the race for Official Christmas Number 1 is underway - and it looks as though it could well be a sausage roll Christmas once again."
Also in with a shout as fewer than 2,000 sales separate the top four tracks, is third place Wham!, whose festive anthem "Last Christmas" has never reached number one since its 1984 release, and Ellie Goulding, with "River".